Ali Takroosta; Parisa Mohajeri; Teymour Mohamadi; Abbas Shakeri
Abstract
Considering the source of oil shocks, this study aims to investigate the effect of oil price shocks on the key macroeconomic variables of the OPEC countries. Even though oil shocks are originated by various factors, political risks are of great importance. Using structural vector-autoregressive model, ...
Read More
Considering the source of oil shocks, this study aims to investigate the effect of oil price shocks on the key macroeconomic variables of the OPEC countries. Even though oil shocks are originated by various factors, political risks are of great importance. Using structural vector-autoregressive model, we disentangled oil shocks and studied their impacts on OPEC’s GDP growth and inflation, using a Panel-VAR for 1994:1-2016:4. Our results highlight that among oil shocks, the oil price shocks stemming from the political risk of OPEC countries have the most significant impact on the OPEC's economic growth, while not having any significant impact on inflation of the countries. We also learned that oil supply shocks could also boost economic growth and increase inflation rates in OPEC countries, although these increases are not significant. Other oil price shocks will only lead to higher inflation in these countries without affecting OPEC's economic growth.
Abbas Shakeri; Hamed Najafi; HAMED najafi jezeh
Abstract
This paper introduces the theoretical foundations of oil vulnerability index for oil exporting countries. In order to identify this index, several indicators related to both economic risk and demand risk were presented. This index was calculated for Iranian economy from 1990 to 2015. Regarding to the ...
Read More
This paper introduces the theoretical foundations of oil vulnerability index for oil exporting countries. In order to identify this index, several indicators related to both economic risk and demand risk were presented. This index was calculated for Iranian economy from 1990 to 2015. Regarding to the economic risk, seven different channels based on the extension of literature discussing the Dutch disease were introduced. These channels include income, government revenue, spending, the current account, exchange rate, technology and government spending volatility channels. Regarding to the demand risk, the focus was on two main components: oil market concentration risk (OMCR) and political risk. For calculation the demand risk, in the first step, the OMCR was calculated based on the share of Iran's oil-importing countries from Iran’s oil export. Then depending on the stability of the bilateral political relations, the dependence of Iran’s oil importers on oil import from Iran and their ability to meet their needs from other countries, the political risk indicator was calculated. Finally, by adjusting OMCR with political risk, geopolitical OMCR was calculated. The results show that between 2002 and 2004, with the diversification of export routes of Iran's oil, creation of oil fund reserves, diversification of foreign exchange source income, etc., OVI was decreased significantly. After 2010, with the decrease in the diversity of oil exports routes, with the imposition of sanctions and with limiting the oil export to certain countries, OVI became the worst.
Vahid Ghorbani Pashakolaie; Morteza Khorsandi; Teymor Mohammadi; Shahla Khaleghi; Abbas Shakeri; Seyed Taghi Abtahi Foroshani
Volume 4, Issue 13 , January 2015, , Pages 191-220
Abstract
After the oil shocks of the 70s, oil extraction policy has become more important in two aspects. In one aspect, economists have reconsidered the Hotelling (1931) model about optimal natural resource extraction rate and in other aspect, engineers has paid more attention to enhanced oil recovery (EOR) ...
Read More
After the oil shocks of the 70s, oil extraction policy has become more important in two aspects. In one aspect, economists have reconsidered the Hotelling (1931) model about optimal natural resource extraction rate and in other aspect, engineers has paid more attention to enhanced oil recovery (EOR) methods. Economic theory of natural resources extraction is designed for maximization of discounted profit but in engineering point of view enhanced oil recovery with considering maximum efficient rate (MER) shape the optimal extraction rate. As a result, combination of these important economic and engineering concepts could be comprehensive definition of the optimal oil extraction rate. This idea has been investigated for one of the southwest Iranian oilfield where natural gas injection as an EOR method has been applied. In this study, we have utilized the optimal control theory which considers all of the above mentioned assumption. The results about cost function indicated that oil extraction cost increases with decreasing remaining reserves. Result about optimal extraction rate showed that for discount rate higher than 10 percent, extraction rate has not been dependent to three EIA oil price scenarios. Optimal oil extraction model depends on discount rate. Low dependency to the oil revenue leads to conservative extraction but otherwise maximum extraction in early years and minimum extraction in the latest years would be optimal.
Amir JAfarzadeh; Abbas Shakeri; Farshad Momeni; Ghahreman Abdoli
Volume 3, Issue 12 , October 2014, , Pages 144-177
Abstract
Following paper explores Iran & Turkmenistan's behavior in exporting natural gas to Europe. Taking this matter these two countries can be a potential of gas exporter to Europe. By using a framework of cooperative game theory, coalition among natural gas exporters and transmitters for the Nabucco ...
Read More
Following paper explores Iran & Turkmenistan's behavior in exporting natural gas to Europe. Taking this matter these two countries can be a potential of gas exporter to Europe. By using a framework of cooperative game theory, coalition among natural gas exporters and transmitters for the Nabucco Project has been explored. In this paper we answer the question whether the two countries should go to the coalition for exporting gas to Europe or not. Moreover, we calculate bargaining power of these two countries. By having outcomes of following paper one can conclude that the both countries have profits to make the coalition for gas exporting among the Nabucoo project. Iran has more bargaining power than Turkmenistan so Iran can play important and active role to make a coalition to export gas to Europe among the Nabucco project.
